Fact check: Economic growth is forecast to slow in 2027 and 2028

At Prime Minister’s Questions on April 2 2025, while addressing leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch, Sir Keir Starmer said: “She’s not read the OBR forecast: Growth up in 2026, 2027 up, 2028 up, 2029 up.”

Evaluation

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest forecast shows that economic growth will rise in 2026.

But while the economy will continue to grow, the growth rate will fall in both 2027 and 2028 before rising again in 2029.

The facts

The Prime Minister was referring to the latest forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility, which was released alongside March’s spring statement from the Chancellor.

The OBR report examines what might happen to several economic indicators in the years ahead. Like all forecasts, these are uncertain, and they become more uncertain the further into the future they stretch.

The relevant section for the growth forecast is on page 158 of the OBR’s report.

This shows that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 1.0% in the 2025 fiscal year and will then speed up to 1.9% in 2026.

However in 2027 growth will slow to 1.8%, according to the OBR forecast, and will slow again in 2028 to 1.7%.

By 2029 growth will once more increase, to 1.8%.

A slowdown in growth does not mean that the economy is no longer growing, simply that is it growing more slowly than it had been. The economy is forecast by the OBR to grow in each one of the years in the forecast.

Links

UK Parliament – Hansard, Wednesday 2 April 2025 (archived)

OBR – Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2025 (archived)

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